Financial Modeling

Broad Run IT, LLC is a Vietnam Veteran owned small business, with special qualifications in DoD procurement and in Cost and Economic Analysis using financial and statistical modeling. I am also experienced in general ADP system design and development using a variety of tools including database design and development and building integration between legacy and new client server systems. These are complementary skills as the enterprise data and applications provide the source of historical data for the business model. The ability to mine enterprise databases, subject that data to statistical analysis, and present the results in an easy to use format are critical factors in the success of a financial or business model. A model begins with an understanding of the business system that is the target of the model. Next an automated model is developed to prove the concept. Finally, the model is iteratively modifed and augmented to respond to new knowledge gained from the model's use and development.

I am looking for clients who recognize the value of sophisticated business planning models that accurately represent the business processes of the enterprise. In a period of business contraction, accurate forecasting of cash flow and sales can be critical to the health of the enterprise. Accurate modeling of business processes can highlight areas where cost reductions or profit improvement can be made.

Successful projects result from a clear and unambiguous understanding of the requirements for an application and a clear understanding of the value of the project to the enterprise. A successful project plan includes three phases each ending with a product that delivers predefined value to the enterprise. The purpose of the first phase is primarily to define the goals, requirements, and value that is expected for the project upon completion. The second phase tests the definition from the first phase by providing an application that delivers an expected value and discloses additional requirements that will be included in the final phase. The final phase is a period of training, testing, and minor application modifications to fully integrate the new system into the enterprise.

Financial Modeling is an area where I have had about six years experience. I have never used MS Excel, Lotus 1-2-3, etc. for this purpose. These are wonderful tools for the casual user, but not for a serious developer. I use MS Excel for many things including simple spread sheets, but I would have trouble modeling a company using this tool. My currently preferred tool is Encore !Plus from Ferox Micro Systems in Alexandria, Virginia. My real favorite would be MicroProphet if I could find it. It is possible using these tools to write serious business models including quite sophisticated statistical and numerical methods. Also, and perhaps more important, these tools separate the model's logic from the data making development and maintenance of the model much much simpler. I have a presentation that I can make directed mainly to model developers that describes and discusses these tools. I also have a presentation that describes the model I did for DoD that estimates the unit cost of tracked vehicles based on the number of vehicles ordered or what number of units can be procured for a given budget amount.